Is the Seattle Housing Market Cooling Down?
This text will speak about how the housing market within the Seattle space is true now and its forecast for subsequent yr. The Seattle actual property market has been sizzling because the pandemic however issues are altering now. Dwelling costs within the Seattle space stay properly above the place they had been a yr in the past however the market is cooling off.
Based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, Seattle, WA is at a present degree of 387.82, down from 397.61 final month and up from 338.53 one yr in the past. It is a change of -2.46% from final month and +14.56% from one yr in the past. The index follows the costs of single-family houses in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties with a two-month lag.
Based on NWMLS’s newest report, September confirmed indicators of a extra conventional market with a pure slowdown of pending gross sales throughout this time of yr. There was about the identical variety of new listings as in pre-pandemic, however with much less depth and a decrease proportion of houses going beneath contract.
The median single-family residence in King County offered for $875,000 in September, a 6% improve from the earlier yr, in accordance with knowledge supplied by the Northwest A number of Itemizing Service on Thursday. Costs in Pierce County had been $538,000, Snohomish County was $735,000, and Kitsap County was $539,997.
Costs in all 4 counties decreased by 2% to three% from August and elevated by 6% to 9% from the earlier yr. Final yr at the moment, costs had elevated between 10% and 19% yearly. In April of this yr, costs in King County rose about 20% from the earlier yr. On the finish of September, there have been twice as many properties on the market within the Puget Sound area in comparison with the identical time final yr.
Regardless of this, market circumstances don’t conform to trade norms. Utilizing a metric often called months of stock, it will take roughly two months to promote all of the single-family homes on the market in King County on the present charge of demand. The balanced market has 4 to 6 months, a degree not seen in a minimum of six years.
<<<Learn: Hottest Areas in Seattle in 2022>>>
King County has 2.02 months of provide, however the different counties within the Puget Sound area have lower than that. There are 1.61 months of provide in Kitsap County, 1.63 months in Snohomish County, and 1.84 months in Pierce County. It’s price noting that present stock ranges in King and Snohomish counties are nonetheless round 13% decrease than they had been in September 2019 previous to the pandemic-induced market shift.
NWMLS brokers reported 7,504 closed gross sales throughout September, down 27% from a yr in the past once they notched 10,289 accomplished transactions. The median value on final month’s gross sales throughout the 26 counties within the report rose about 5.1% from a yr in the past, growing from $570,000 to $599,000. Costs are down barely from the August median of $600,000 and from the yr’s peak of $660,000 that was reported in Could.
<<<Learn: Washington State Housing Market Forecast>>>
Seattle Housing Market Report – September 2022
Under is the newest Seattle Housing Market Report launched by “Northwest MLS.” The report compares the important thing housing metrics of the Metropolis of Seattle (which is a part of King County).
Listed here are the numbers (RESIDENTIAL+CONDO) for September 2022 in contrast with September 2021.
ACTIVE LISTINGS FOR SALE
- Complete energetic listings in Seattle had been 1,731.
- This represents a rise of 48.58% as in comparison with September 2021.
- Complete energetic listings in All King County had been 4,738.
- This represents an increase of 98.16% as in comparison with September 2021.
NEW LISTINGS FOR SALE
- 1,381 new listings had been added to the market by brokers in Seattle.
- This represents a lower of 6.24% as in comparison with September 2021.
- 3,504 new listings had been added to the market in All King County.
- This represents a lower of 12.3% as in comparison with September 2021.
CLOSED SALES
- 773 closed gross sales had been registered by brokers in Seattle.
- This represents a year-over-year lower of -33.93%.
- 2,348 closed gross sales had been registered in All King County.
- This represents a year-over-year lower of -32.91%.
PENDING SALES
- 756 pending gross sales had been registered by brokers in Seattle.
- This represents a lower of -41.21% from the identical month a yr in the past.
- 2,314 pending gross sales had been registered in All King County.
- This represents a lower of -38.54% from the identical month a yr in the past.
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
- Seattle’s median gross sales value elevated by 6.14% to $812,000.
- Final yr, at the moment, the median value in Seattle was $765,000.
- King County’s median value elevated by 7.25% to $799,000.
- Final yr, at the moment, the median value in King County was $745,000.
MONTHS OF INVENTORY (MOI)
- 2.24 months represents the quantity in Seattle.
- Months of provide in All King County is 2.02.
- 6 months of provide is when you may have a balanced actual property market.
- This exhibits that this area continues to be a vendor’s housing market.
Why is the Seattle Housing Market So Scorching?
Seattle’s housing market is pushed by staff of native tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft, in addition to firms with massive operations within the neighborhood like Google and Fb. A lot of them did not wish to work remotely in small flats in the course of the epidemic, in order that they sought spacious houses with workplace areas. Most of them have the monetary means to compete with different consumers and lift residence promoting costs.
The housing market within the four-county Puget Sound area has the tightest stock. Even with the wholesome uptick in stock, there’s nonetheless lower than 1.8 months of provide. To summarise the final month’s statistics we are able to say that the Puget Sound area stays a vendor’s actual property market with lower than 2 months of stock — nonetheless properly under what’s required to satisfy the amount of consumers proper now.
It’s a Vendor’s Actual Property Market
Based on Realtor.com, King County, WA continues to be a vendor’s actual property market. The median asking value continues to be rising in double digits. The median asking value for a house in King County was $899K in September 2022, which is a rise of 20.6 % yr over yr. The median sale value was 810K. If the Median Itemizing Worth is growing, the market is probably going “sizzling,” and houses will promote extra rapidly. When costs improve, sellers will profit. In September, houses in King County offered for about the asking value. The Sale-to-Record Worth Ratio was 99.43%.
- There are 63 cities in King County, the place Realtor.com has energetic listings.
- Beaux-Arts has a median itemizing value of $2.3M, and it stays the costliest metropolis in King County.
- Des Moines is probably the most inexpensive metropolis in King County, with a median itemizing value of $599,000.
- The median itemizing value of houses in Seattle is $850,000, trending up 13.5% year-over-year.
- The median sale value is $800,000.
- Seattle can also be a vendor’s market, having a complete sales-to-total listings ratio above 0.2 have a tendency, which favors sellers.
- North Queen Anne has a median itemizing value of $1.3M, making it the costliest neighborhood in Seattle.
- Belltown has develop into probably the most inexpensive neighborhood, with a median itemizing value of houses being round $567.5K.
Seattle Housing Market Forecast 2022 & 2023
Seattle housing costs are going to rise in 2022 and 2023 albeit at a slower charge. Allow us to have a look at the value developments recorded by Zillow over the previous few years. For the previous 6 to 7 years an excessive drop in stock led to an astronomical rise in Seattle residence costs, as consumers competed over a dwindling variety of properties in the marketplace. Seattle has a observe document of being top-of-the-line long-term actual property investments within the U.S.
The present typical residence worth of houses in Seattle is $944,260. ZHVI represents the entire housing inventory and never simply the houses that listing or promote in a given month. In August 2021, the standard worth of houses in Seattle was round $866,585. Dwelling values have gone up 9.0% since then.
- Typical Dwelling Worth: $944,260
- 1-year Worth Change: +9.0%
- (Knowledge via August 31, 2022)
Based on NeighborhoodScout.com. Their knowledge additionally exhibits that Seattle’s actual property appreciated 124.93% during the last ten years, which is a mean annual residence appreciation charge of 8.44%, placing Seattle within the prime 10% nationally for actual property appreciation. As of now, Seattle costs are up throughout the board. Through the newest twelve months alone, the Seattle appreciation charge has been 11.58%, and within the newest quarter, the appreciation charge has been at 1.69%, which annualizes to a charge of 6.92%.
Right here is the housing forecast for Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro.
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Metro residence values have gone up 9.0% from final yr.
- The Seattle metro housing market forecast ending with August 2033 is considerably constructive.
- Zillow predicts that Seattle metro residence values might develop by 0.8% by August 2023.
- If this forecast is right, Seattle metro residence costs shall be barely larger within the 2nd Quarter of 2023 than they had been within the 2nd Quarter of 2022.
- King County residence values have gone up 13.8% from final August.
- Pierce County residence values have gone up 12.6% from final August.
- The everyday residence worth of houses in Snohomish County is $754,929, up by virtually 14.6% over the previous yr.
These numbers might be constructive or detrimental relying on which aspect of the fence you’re — Purchaser or Vendor? Folks proceed to purchase and promote their houses, whether or not they’re rising their household and wish a much bigger place, relocating for a job, or retiring. Alternatives abound for each consumers and sellers in the event that they’re keen to behave rapidly.
Seattle and the complete metro space market is so sizzling that it can not shift to an entire purchaser’s actual property market, for the long run. In a balanced actual property market, it will take about 5 to 6 months for the availability to dwindle to zero. By way of months of provide, Seattle can develop into a purchaser’s actual property market if the availability will increase to greater than 5 months of stock. And that’s unlikely to occur a minimum of over the following twelve months.
The underside line: The present stock (months of provide for SFH+condos) on this area stays tight — 2.24 months in Seattle and a pair of.02 months in All of King County. Subsequently, in the long run, the Seattle actual property market stays as sturdy as at all times. This housing market is skewed to sellers because of a persistent imbalance in provide and demand.
A number of the info on this article was obtained from referenced web sites. Norada Actual Property Investments supplies no express or implied claims, warranties, or ensures that the fabric is correct, reliable, or present. All info ought to be validated utilizing the under references. As a normal coverage, Norada Actual Property Investments makes no claims or assertions concerning the future housing market circumstances throughout the US.
REFERENCES
- https://www.nwmls.com/
- https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values
- https://www.redfin.com/information/seattle-homes-sold-above-list-price/
- https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Seattle_WA/overview
- https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/wa/seattle
- https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/wa/seattle/real-estate
- https://www.littlebighomes.com/real-estate-seattle.html
- https://seattlerealestatenews.com/class/information/seattle-monthly-housing-news
- https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/best-time-to-buy-or-sell-a-house-during-pandemic-15287608.php
